Managing the Income Portfolio

The reason people assume the risks of investing in the first place is the prospect of achieving a higher rate of return than is attainable in a risk free environment�i.e., an FDIC insured bank account. Risk comes in various forms, but the average investor's primary concerns are "credit" and "market" risk� particularly when it comes to investing for income. Credit risk involves the ability of corporations, government entities, and even individuals, to make good on their financial commitments; market risk refers to the certainty that there will be changes in the Market Value of the selected securities. We can minimize the former by selecting only high quality (investment grade) securities and the latter by diversifying properly, understanding that Market Value changes are normal, and by having a plan of action for dealing with such fluctuations. (What does the bank do to get the amount of interest it guarantees to depositors? What does it do in response to higher or lower market interest rate expectations?)


You don't have to be a professional Investment Manager to professionally manage your investment portfolio, but you do need to have a long term plan and know something about Asset Allocation� a portfolio organization tool that is often misunderstood and almost always improperly used within the financial community. It's important to recognize, as well, that you do not need a fancy computer program or a glossy presentation with economic scenarios, inflation estimators, and stock market projections to get yourself lined up properly with your target. You need common sense, reasonable expectations, patience, discipline, soft hands, and an oversized driver. The K. I. S. S. Principle needs to be at the foundation of your Investment Plan; an emphasis on Working Capital will help you Organize, and Control your investment portfolio.


Planning for Retirement should focus on the additional income needed from the investment portfolio, and the Asset Allocation formula [relax, 8th grade math is plenty] needed for goal achievement will depend on just three variables: (1) the amount of liquid investment assets you are starting with, (2) the amount of time until retirement, and (3) the range of interest rates currently available from Investment Grade Securities. If you don't allow the "engineer" gene to take control, this can be a fairly simple process. Even if you are young, you need to stop smoking heavily and to develop a growing stream of income� if you keep the income growing, the Market Value growth (that you are expected to worship) will take care of itself. Remember, higher Market Value may increase hat size, but it doesn't pay the bills.


First deduct any guaranteed pension income from your retirement income goal to estimate the amount needed just from the investment portfolio. Don't worry about inflation at this stage. Next, determine the total Market Value of your investment portfolios, including company plans, IRAs, H-Bonds� everything, except the house, boat, jewelry, etc. Liquid personal and retirement plan assets only. This total is then multiplied by a range of reasonable interest rates (6%, to 8% right now) and, hopefully, one of the resulting numbers will be close to the target amount you came up with a moment ago. If you are within a few years of retirement age, they better be! For certain, this process will give you a clear idea of where you stand, and that, in and of itself, is worth the effort.


Organizing the Portfolio involves deciding upon an appropriate Asset Allocation� and that requires some discussion. Asset Allocation is the most important and most frequently misunderstood concept in the investment lexicon. The most basic of the confusions is the idea that diversification and Asset Allocation are one and the same. Asset Allocation divides the investment portfolio into the two basic classes of investment securities: Stocks/Equities and Bonds/Income Securities. Most Investment Grade securities fit comfortably into one of these two classes. Diversification is a risk reduction technique that strictly controls the size of individual holdings as a percent of total assets. A second misconception describes Asset Allocation as a sophisticated technique used to soften the bottom line impact of movements in stock and bond prices, and/or a process that automatically (and foolishly) moves investment dollars from a weakening asset classification to a stronger one� a subtle "market timing" device.

Finally, the Asset Allocation Formula is often misused in an effort to superimpose a valid investment planning tool on speculative strategies that have no real merits of their own, for example: annual portfolio repositioning, market timing adjustments, and Mutual Fund shifting. The Asset Allocation formula itself is sacred, and if constructed properly, should never be altered due to conditions in either Equity or Fixed Income markets. Changes in the personal situation, goals, and objectives of the investor are the only issues that can be allowed into the Asset Allocation decision-making process.


Here are a few basic Asset Allocation Guidelines: (1) All Asset Allocation decisions are based on the Cost Basis of the securities involved. The current Market Value may be more or less and it just doesn't matter. (2) Any investment portfolio with a Cost Basis of $100,000 or more should have a minimum of 30% invested in Income Securities, either taxable or tax free, depending on the nature of the portfolio. Tax deferred entities (all varieties of retirement programs) should house the bulk of the Equity Investments. This rule applies from age 0 to Retirement Age � 5 years. Under age 30, it is a mistake to have too much of your portfolio in Income Securities. (3) There are only two Asset Allocation Categories, and neither is ever described with a decimal point. All cash in the portfolio is destined for one category or the other. (4) From Retirement Age � 5 on, the Income Allocation needs to be adjusted upward until the "reasonable interest rate test" says that you are on target or at least in range. (5) At retirement, between 60% and 100% of your portfolio may have to be in Income Generating Securities.


Controlling, or Implementing, the Investment Plan will be accomplished best by those who are least emotional, most decisive, naturally calm, patient, generally conservative (not politically), and self actualized. Investing is a long-term, personal, goal orientated, non- competitive, hands on, decision-making process that does not require advanced degrees or a rocket scientist IQ. In fact, being too smart can be a problem if you have a tendency to over analyze things. It is helpful to establish guidelines for selecting securities, and for disposing of them. For example, limit Equity involvement to Investment Grade, NYSE, dividend paying, profitable, and widely held companies. Don't buy any stock unless it is down at least 20% from its 52 week high, and limit individual equity holdings to less than 5% of the total portfolio. Take a reasonable profit (using 10% as a target) as frequently as possible. With a 40% Income Allocation, 40% of profits and dividends would be allocated to Income Securities.


For Fixed Income, focus on Investment Grade securities, with above average but not "highest in class" yields. With Variable Income securities, avoid purchase near 52-week highs, and keep individual holdings well below 5%. Keep individual Preferred Stocks and Bonds well below 5% as well. Closed End Fund positions may be slightly higher than 5%, depending on type. Take a reasonable profit (more than one years' income for starters) as soon as possible. With a 60% Equity Allocation, 60% of profits and interest would be allocated to stocks.

Monitoring Investment Performance the Wall Street way is inappropriate and problematic for goal-orientated investors. It purposely focuses on short-term dislocations and uncontrollable cyclical changes, producing constant disappointment and encouraging inappropriate transactional responses to natural and harmless events. Coupled with a Media that thrives on sensationalizing anything outrageously positive or negative (Google and Enron, Peter Lynch and Martha Stewart, for example), it becomes difficult to stay the course with any plan, as environmental conditions change. First greed, then fear, new products replacing old, and always the promise of something better when, in fact, the boring and old fashioned basic investment principles still get the job done. Remember, your unhappiness is Wall Street's most coveted asset. Don't humor them, and protect yourself. Base your performance evaluation efforts on goal achievement� yours, not theirs. Here's how, based on the three basic objectives we've been talking about: Growth of Base Income, Profit Production from Trading, and Overall Growth in Working Capital.


Base Income includes the dividends and interest produced by your portfolio, without the realized capital gains that should actually be the larger number much of the time. No matter how you slice it, your long-range comfort demands regularly increasing income, and by using your total portfolio cost basis as the benchmark, it's easy to determine where to invest your accumulating cash. Since a portion of every dollar added to the portfolio is reallocated to income production, you are assured of increasing the total annually. If Market Value is used for this analysis, you could be pouring too much money into a falling stock market to the detriment of your long-range income objectives.


Profit Production is the happy face of the market value volatility that is a natural attribute of all securities. To realize a profit, you must be able to sell the securities that most investment strategists (and accountants) want you to marry up with! Successful investors learn to sell the ones they love, and the more frequently (yes, short term), the better. This is called trading, and it is not a four-letter word. When you can get yourself to the point where you think of the securities you own as high quality inventory on the shelves of your personal portfolio boutique, you have arrived. You won't see WalMart holding out for higher prices than their standard markup, and neither should you. Reduce the markup on slower movers, and sell damaged goods you've held too long at a loss if you have to, and, in the thick of it all, try to anticipate what your standard, Wall Street Account Statement is going to show you� a portfolio of equity securities that have not yet achieved their profit goals and are probably in negative Market Value territory because you've sold the winners and replaced them with new inventory� compounding the earning power! Similarly, you'll see a diversified group of income earners, chastised for following their natural tendencies (this year), at lower prices, which will help you increase your portfolio yield and overall cash flow. If you see big plus signs, you are not managing the portfolio properly.


Working Capital Growth (total portfolio cost basis) just happens, and at a rate that will be somewhere between the average return on the Income Securities in the portfolio and the total realized gain on the Equity portion of the portfolio. It will actually be higher with larger Equity allocations because frequent trading produces a higher rate of return than the more secure positions in the Income allocation. But, and this is too big a but to ignore as you approach retirement, trading profits are not guaranteed and the risk of loss (although minimized with a sensible selection process) is greater than it is with Income Securities. This is why the Asset Allocation moves from a greater to a lesser Equity percentage as you approach retirement.


So is there really such a thing as an Income Portfolio that needs to be managed? Or are we really just dealing with an investment portfolio that needs its Asset Allocation tweaked occasionally as we approach the time in life when it has to provide the yacht� and the gas money to run it? By using Cost Basis (Working Capital) as the number that needs growing, by accepting trading as an acceptable, even conservative, approach to portfolio management, and by focusing on growing income instead of ego, this whole retirement investing thing becomes significantly less scary. So now you can focus on changing the tax code, reducing health care costs, saving Social Security, and spoiling the grandchildren.

Health Care Statistics 101

In a healthcare statistics class I had last year, the instructor told us that the United States ranked seventh in infant mortality and she asked us - the class - what we thought might be the reason for the US not being number one, having the best available health care in the world and all. I raised my hand and told her that it was likely that every other country that ranked ahead of us had universal health care while the US did not and factors like better pre-natal care and such were the reasons for this. The instructor, bless her, looked puzzled by this news as if this were the very first time she'd ever heard such a thing.

Here's another more recent statistic: The United States now ranks twenty-third in over all life spans. Twenty two other countries have citizens who live longer than us. Do you think those countries might have universal health care for all their citizens? As you read this, forty five million Americans have no health insurance at all. That's about twenty percent of our population (I think. I actually didn't do all that well in that statistics class). There is no other industrialized country in the world that would trade their healthcare system for ours, that is their socialized healthcare system.

But Steve, I don't want the government providing my healthcare! That was a statement I heard from my brother-in-law years back when Bill Clinton was attempting to provide healthcare to all Americans. In reply to my brother-in-law - the postman - I mentioned that the government was already providing healthcare to him and it seemed to working out for him just fine. He was a bit nonplused, but not for long and I forget how the rest of our discussion went.

More statistics: The administrative costs for Medicaid and Medicare are two percent, that is, this is the cost that these agencies charge to distribute and administer funds. The comparable costs for insurance companies to perform the same service is between thirteen and thirty percent, in other words they are six to fifteen times less efficient than the despicable, inefficient government in providing the same service.

But how can that be? Everybody knows that private industry is automatically better than government because of competition and all that. Right? Well, first of all, not necessarily, and second it isn't the function of government to provide services as cheaply as possible while charging the most money possible and lining their pockets with the rest. But that is exactly what private companies do.

Here's something not a lot of people don't know about insurance companies: They don't make money only from taking people's money and then paying out less than that so they make a profit; Insurance companies invest the money in the stock market. A major reason for the rise in medical insurance after the year 2000 was that the insurance companies had to make up for stock market. You didn't pay more because you were getting better services in order to better save your life. You paid more because the people you had entrusted with your money had gambled it all away. No one would stand for them taking their money to Vegas and putting it on the Roulette table, but that's more or less what they did and the odds were poorer.

Understanding Fixed Income Securities: Expectations

I've come to the conclusion that the Stock Market is an easier medium for investors to understand (i.e., to form behavioral expectations about) than the Fixed Income Market. As unlikely as this sounds, experience proves it, irrefutably. Few investors grow to love volatility as I do, but most expect it in the Market Value of their equity positions. When dealing with Fixed Income Securities however, neither they nor their advisors are comfortable with any downward movement at all. Most won't consider taking profits when prices increase, but will rush in to accept losses when prices fall.


Theoretically, Fixed Income Securities should be the ultimate Buy and Hold; their primary purpose is income generation, and return of principal is typically a contractual obligation. I like to add some seasoning to this bland diet, through profit taking whenever possible, but losses are almost never an acceptable, or necessary, menu item. Still, Wall Street pumps out products and Investment Experts rationalize strategies that cloud the simple rules governing the behavior of what should be an investor's retirement blankie. I shake my head in disbelief, constantly. The investment gods have spoken: "The market price of Fixed Income Securities shall vary inversely with Interest Rates, both actual and anticipated� and it is good."


It's OK, it's natural, it just doesn't matter, I say to disbelieving audiences everywhere. You have to understand how these securities react to interest rate expectations and take advantage of it. There's no need to hedge against it, or to cry about it. It's simply the nature of things. This is the first of three successive articles I'll be writing about Fixed Income Investing. If I don't improve your comfort level with this effort, perhaps the next one will strike the proper chord.


There are several reasons why investors have invalid expectations about their Fixed Income investments: (1) They don't experience this type of investing until retirement planning time and they view all securities with an eye on Market Value, as they have been programmed to do by Wall Street. (2) The combination of increasing age and inexperience creates an inordinate fear of loss that is prayed upon by commissioned sales persons of all shapes and sizes. (3) They have trouble distinguishing between the income generating purpose of Fixed Income Securities and the fact that they are negotiable instruments with a Market Value that is a function of current, as opposed to contractual, interest rates. (4) They have been brainwashed into believing that the Market Value of their portfolio, and not the income that it generates, is their primary weapon against inflation. [Really, Alice, if you held these securities in a safe deposit box instead of a brokerage account, and just received the income, the perception of loss, the fear, and the rush to make a change would simply disappear. Think about it.]


Every properly constructed portfolio will contain securities whose primary purpose is to generate income (fixed and/or variable), and every investor must understand some basic and "absolute" characteristics of Interest Rate Sensitive Securities. These securities include Corporate, Government, and Municipal Bonds, Preferred Stocks, many Closed End Funds, Unit Trusts, REITs, Royalty Trusts, Treasury Securities, etc. Most are legally binding contracts between the owner of the securities (you, or an Investment Company that you own a piece of) and an entity that promises to pay a Fixed Rate of Interest for the use of the money. They are primary debts of the issuer, and must be paid before all other obligations. They are negotiable, meaning that they can be bought and sold, at a price that varies with current interest rates. The longer the duration of the obligation, the more price fluctuation cycles will occur during the holding period. Typically, longer obligations also have higher interest rates. Two things are accomplished by buying shorter duration securities: you earn less interest and you pay your broker a commission more frequently.


Defaults in interest payments are extremely rare, particularly in Investment Grade Securities, and it is very likely that you will receive a predictable, constant, and gradually increasing flow of Income. (The income will increase gradually only if you manage your asset allocation properly by adding proportionately to your Fixed Income holdings.) So, if everything is going according to plan, all that you ever need to look at is the amount of income that your Fixed Income portfolio is generating� period. Dealing with variable income securities is slightly different, as Market Value will also vary with the nature of the income, and the economics of a particular industry. REITs, Royalty Trusts, Unit Trusts, and even CEFs (Closed End Funds) may have variable income levels and portfolio management requires an understanding of the risks involved. A Municipal Bond CEF, for example will have a much more dependable cash flow and considerably more price stability than an oil and gas Royalty Trust. Thus, diversification in the income-generating portion of the portfolio is even more important than in the growth portion� income pays the bills. Never lose sight of that fact and you will be able to go fishing more frequently in retirement.


The critical relationship between the two classes of securities in your portfolio, is this: The Market Value of your Equity Investments and that of your Fixed Income investments are totally, and completely unrelated. Each Market dances to it's own beat. Stocks are like heavy metal or Rap�impossible to predict. Bonds are more like the classics and old time rock-and-roll�much more predictable. Thus, for the sake of portfolio smile maintenance, you must develop the ability to separate the two classes of securities, mentally, if not physically. For example, if your July 2005 Market Value fell, it was because of higher interest rates not lower stock prices. More recently, the combination of higher rates and a weaker Stock Market has been a Double Whammy for portfolio Market Values, and a double bonanza for investment opportunities. Just like at the Mall, lower securities prices are a good thing for buyers� and higher prices are a good thing for sellers. You need to act on these things with each cyclical change.


Here's a simple way to deal with Fixed Income Market Values to avoid shocks and surprises. Just visualize the Scales of Justice, with or without the blindfold. On one side we have a number that represents the Current Market Value of your Fixed Income portfolio. On the other side, we have a small "i" for interest rates, and "up" or "down" arrows that represent interest rate directional expectations. If the world expects interest rates to rise, or even to stop going down, "up" arrows are added to "i" and the Market Value side moves lower� the current scenario. Absolutely nothing can (or should) be done about it. It has no impact at all on the contracts you hold or the interest that you will receive; neither the maturity value nor the cash flow is affected� but your broker just called with an idea.

The mechanics are also simple. These are negotiable securities that carry a fixed interest rate. Buyers are entitled to current rates, and the only way to provide them on an existing security is to sell it at a discount. Fortunately, one rarely has to sell. Over the past few years of falling interest rates, Fixed Income securities have risen in price and investors (should) have realized capital gains as a result�adding to portfolio income and Working Capital. Now, that trend has reversed itself and you have the opportunity to add to existing holdings, or to buy new securities, at lower prices and higher interest rates. This cycle will be repeated forever.

So, from a "let's try to be happy with our investment portfolio because it's financially healthier" standpoint, it is critical that you understand changes in Market Value, anticipate them, and appreciate the opportunities that they provide. Comparing your portfolio Market Value with some external and unrelated number accomplishes nothing. Actually, owning your fixed income securities in the most freely negotiable manner possible can put you in a unique position. You have no increased risk from a reduction in security prices, while you gain the ability to add to holdings at higher yields. It's like magic, or is it justice. Both sides of the scales contain good news for the investor� as the investment gods intended.

Sanity Check - Buying a Business

In the business broker community there is a review process that helps a buyer determine if a business purchase makes sense or not. This check can be done by a Fortune 500 company where everything is figured down to the penny and takes 1000 hours of research or it can be done by a small main street shop buyer who figures it out in 1 hour. Each item in this review process requires a decision. This decision can be based on extensive research or just on a reasonable guess.

The beauty of this process is; how long you want to spend on doing this activity is totally up to you. As we review this process, I will explain the variables of this system so you can make the necessary decisions where needed. Remember, this is only a tool to help you make decisions about a business purchase; it is not a sure-fire foolproof system. I will just lay it out for you and you make your own decision as to the validity of this formula for analyzing a business purchase that you may want to make.

The Sanity check requires two mathematical formulas, which require dollar amounts or other numbers to be entered in each formula. The math is calculated and then the results are compared against the purchase price. If it doesn't work out the way you wanted, you have the option of then going back and change some of the numbers and do the calculation a second time.

The two formulas are:

1. SP + WC � BF = CR
Sale Price + Working Capital - Borrowed Funds = Cash Requirement

2. SDE � FMW (FO) � DS - ROI = Extra Profit/Loss
Sellers Discretionary Earnings - Fair Market Wage (for the owner) - Debt Service - Return on Investment (Cash Requirement x Interest rate -Stated as a Percentage) = Extra Profit/Loss

Since each item in the formula needs to have a dollar amount determined, we will define the terms and then discuss how the dollar amount is derived at.

Terms Definition:

Sale Price: The price that is being asked for the business or the price the buyer is thinking of offering. Depending on when you do this analysis. If you are trying to determine an asking price you would calculate all the other numbers in these two formulas to determine what should be your offering price. We will do examples to make this clear later in this article.

Working Capital: The short-term assets minus the short-term liabilities is the accounting definition. The simple explanation would be the amount of money necessary to be invested by the buyer to run the daily operations of the business, once purchased. This would include monies tied up in inventory, and accounts receivables. Money invested to pay the landlord's or utility company's deposits. Also included is the money spent on the business purchase to cover the loan origination costs and purchase escrow fees when buying the business. It is the total funds invested into the business to keep it running. The down payment given to the seller is not part of this number, since it is included as a separate item.

Calculation notes:
1. Cost of inventory: $_________________ (+)
2. Accounts receivable: $_________________ (+)
3. Landlord deposit: $_________________ (+)
4. Utility Deposits: $_________________ (+)
5. Escrow fees to purchase: $_________________ (+)
6. Loan origination costs: $_________________ (+)
7. Short term liabilities* $ _________________ (--)
Total Working Capital $_________________

* Short-term liabilities are defined as liabilities that are to be paid off within 1 year � accounts payables and the part of any notes payable that are to be paid within 1 year.

Borrowed Funds: The loan made for a business purchase from a bank or private party. The private party can be the seller or some friend or relative who might be willing to make a loan. This is borrowed money that must be paid back to someone at some time in the future.

Cash Requirement: This is the invested cash required to both buy a business, and working capital-to run the business. The amount of cash needed to make the business purchase and run the operations of the business after deducting all borrowed funds, regardless of source.

Sellers Discretionary Earnings / Owners Total Benefits: This is the total of all the non-business related benefits going to a business owner or his family on an annual basis that have been paid for, by the business. Included in this is definition are taxable profit from operations, unreported cash income, owners salary, salaries to non-working family members, any amount over the fair market value of salaries paid to working family members, family auto expenses, family telephone, family office expenses, health and life insurance for any or all family members, pension plan/ profit sharing contributions paid for the benefit of family members. This can also be stated as the reason why most people go to work everyday; they get family support for working.


Calculation notes:
1. Taxable profit from operation $_________________ (+)
2. Cash $_________________ (+)
3. Owners Salary $_________________ (+)
4. Salaries of non-working family members $_________________ (+)
5. Amount over the fair market value of wages
of working Family members $_________________ (+)
6. Family Auto Expenses $_________________ (+)
7. Family Telephone Expense $_________________ (+)
8. Family Office Expense $_________________ (+)
9. Health and Life insurance of
Any/all family members $_________________ (+)
10. Pension plan/profit share family members $_________________ (+)
Total Seller Discretionary Earnings: $_________________

Return on Investment: We need to have this stated as a dollar amount in Formula two. ROI is calculated as follows:

Cash Requirement X "a Percent" - the greater the risk, the higher the percent

First we must determine what the interest rate return we wish on our investment. This is a very subjective percentage and a change in this number can change the whole result of this analysis. If it is of any help, many financial investors in "Corporate America" feels they need to get a 20% return on their invested capital. Companies do not always make money and therefore the possible loses are built into the ROI. Some of the reasons are: companies are bought and go broke, overseas competition causing expectations of growth and income not to be met, and lastly government regulations periodically close whole industries. These are just some of the many risks involved in owning a business.

Putting your money in a bank has little risk, because the Federal Government insures your deposits in the bank. The stock market has a lot of risk that many people do not fully understand, causing them to accept a long term ROI of 10-13% from mutual fund investments. A 95% drop in stock prices like the dot.com stocks or what happened when we had the oil embargo in 1992 are indications that the stock market can be a much higher risk than people realize.

I personally feel that owning your own business and buying real estate are much lower risks, providing a much higher return. The proof of this can be found in the number of people who got rich in real estate and the over 25 million small business owners across this country.

Figure out what ROI you want and insert this number as .20 amount to represent 20% or .06 to represent 6% ROI. This is an annual return on invested money.

Once you have a percentage return on your investment we need to multiply it by the Cash requirement in order to come up with a dollar amount return needed. This restated is Dollars invested x percentage (stated as a decimal) = Dollar return on investment.

Examples:

1) Investment of $50,000.00 @ 6% Return On Investment (ROI) would be calculated as follows: $50,000.00 X .06 = $3,000.000 (Dollars return on investment)

2) Investment of $50,000.00 @ 20% Return On Investment (ROI) would be calculated as follows: $50,000.00 X .20 = $10,000.00 (Dollars return on investment)

Debt Service: The reason we need this number is because this is a financial expense of owning a business. It is not an operating expense of the daily business operations but if you have debt, in your business, you must be able to make the payments, out of the business operations profit. Usually this payment is mostly interest and a smaller portion is the principal reduction of the loan balance.

Most professionals deduct the whole payment when doing this analysis, because the business must generate enough profit to make the whole payment. My personal preference is to just deduct the interest portion and to add the principal portion of the payment to working capital amount needed. This counts as more money being put into the business just like financing inventory and/or accounts receivables.

For simple one-hour analyses it is not worth splitting up the payment. In the case of a very large principal reduction payment it could be unreasonable to not split it up. It is up to you. You can always try it both ways, since this is a process to raise your understanding, not to come up with a fixed answer of, yes! it is a buy or no! it is not a buy.

Fair Market Wages: This is an amount that the new or old owner would be paid, if he were an employee not the owner. If the owner were the company salesman and also the company bookkeeper working a total 60 hours a week, a reasonable salary would have to be determined for each job. As an example only, lets say that an outside salesman, in your industry, could make $40,000 per year. And a bookkeeper usually charges $15 per hour. The salesman might very well work 50 hours at this job to earn this salary. If a bookkeeper would work 10 hours per week doing the bookkeeping that would mean 520 hours per year (10 hours x 52) times $15.00 per hour which comes to $7800 per year for the bookkeeper. The two Fair Market Salaries would come to $47,800 ($40,000 + $7,800).

Sometimes the market salaries are not so easy to figure. Lets take an owner who owns a 99-cent discount type store. This shopkeeper works 70 hours per week behind a counter in the store. You can hire a counter person for $7.00 per hour so this becomes (70 hrs x $7.00 per hour x 52 weeks).


Then you start discussing that this $7.00 per hour counter person would not be able to do the buying. You might want to figure a purchasing agent's salary. This can be done or you can just do simple numbers, leaving the salary only based on a counter person's wages.
DOING THE MATH
By now you have the information to come up with numbers to put into the formula. Let us create a scenario. This was a transmission shop. The customers pay COD-upon pick up of the car. The parts inventory is from old transmissions and show on the books as worth nothing. The seller-owner is asking $75,000 for this business that he is able to takes out $50,000 in profit or benefits. In an interview, the owner mentioned that if a buyer will put $40,000 as a down payment he would carry the $35,000 balance at 5% interest for 5 years. By observation, we can see that the current owner sits in the office and does the bookkeeping, orders parts and makes bank deposits. He has a manager who bids jobs and handles production. No one is going out and calling on prospective business, which is one thing the owner should be doing with his time, but he is not doing. Lets go through what the numbers are with this example.

Math Formula #1: Sale Price + Working Capital - Borrowed Funds = Cash Requirement

Sales Price: $75,000
Working Capital: The business requires $10,000 cash infusion upon close of escrow, mostly to pay the landlords deposits and start a new marketing campaign.
Borrowed Funds: $35,000
So, the calculation for formula #1 looks like this:

Sales Price: $75,000
Working Capital (+) $10,000
Borrowed Funds (-) $35,000
=Cash Requirement: $50,000.00
Math Formula #2: Sellers Discretionary Earnings - Fair Market Wages For Owner - Debt Service - Return on Investment (Cash Requirement x Percentage) = Extra Profit/Loss

Seller Discretionary Earnings in this case is, let us say, $50,000.00.

Fair Market Wage: You can calculate what you consider fair or you can put all of the other numbers into the equation and see what is left for salary. If you like the salary you buy the business, if not you do not. If we were to calculate what the owner's salary should be I would not pay much for what he does. Even though he puts in 50 hours a week he really only works 15 hours a week of true production. I am figuring 5 hours for bookkeeping and banking and 10 hours for ordering parts and answering phone calls. At $15.00 per hour he is earning $225.00 a week ($15.00 x 15 hours) and that multiplied times 52 weeks comes to $11,700 per year.

Debt Service: My financial calculator says that if you borrow $40,000 for 5 years (60 months) at 5% and the balance at the end of the 60-month is zero, the monthly payments come to $660.49. Since the formula requires yearly figures we multiply by 12 and get $7,925.92. Most of this payment is principal reduction but we are going to just deduct all of the payment as is generally accepted in the industry.

Return on Investment: We are going to use the 20% figure we discussed above. Formula one determined that $50,000 was needed as an investment which is multiplied by 20% (.20) = $10,000 per year return on investment.
Formula #2 (Sellers Discretionary Earnings - Fair Market Wages (For Owner) - Debt Service - Return on Investment (Cash Requirement x Percentage) = Extra Profit/Loss) would the look like this:

Seller Discretionary Earnings: $50,000.00
- Fair Market Wages: $11,700.00 (-)
- Debt Service: $ 7,925.00 (-)
- Return on investment: $10,000.00 (-)
= Extra Profit/Loss: $20,375.00

This means that after deducting from the income, wages, financing costs and a return on your cash investment the business still generates $20,375 more profit. Now would you buy this business under these circumstances? It would appear, yes! Of course this is based on a few assumptions, which might not be true. Lets look at them again.

The owner is only working 15 hours a week or he is only doing 15 hours of real work even though he is sitting around all day. The other assumption is that a 20% return on your investment is a sufficient return for the risk.

We can also consider that if the new owner puts in an extra 25 hours a week doing productive sales the business should be able to afford to pay him another $20,375 for the first year. It would appear that if the sales work was done then the profit should greatly increase in the second year or maybe even the second month.

Conclusion:
This is a tool to help you analyze a business. It is not the end-all of a business appraisal or evaluation. Just a tool to help increase your understanding of a business's value that you may be seeking to purchase. Have fun with it.

Body Shop - How To Value One

Many smaller body shop owners have asked, "How do I appraise my body shop?" In the last month I have been asked to do two appraisals on body shops. The first appraisal was to assist in partnership dissolution; the second appraisal was for marriage dissolution. (That is what the attorneys call a divorce.) Would you like to know how to appraise the value of a body shop business?

Before we begin, I would like to make one comment. Whenever a CPA has done an appraisal of a body shop, I find that their opinion of value is much greater than the actual value the market place will pay. This is not because the CPA's do not know what they are doing because they do; it is just that the market place places a much higher risk on buying a body shop than the accountants do. The following is an excerpt from one of those appraisals.

THE THREE WAYS TO APPRAISE A BUSINESS

1. The ASSET VALUATION METHOD. This method is basically used when a body shop does less than $400,000 a year in gross income and the seller is making wages, but no real profit above what he would be paid if working for another. On this size business, a buyer is willing to pay for the assets of the business but little or nothing for goodwill. The equipment is usually worth between $50,000 and $100,000, depending on how many frame machines the business owns and how nice a spray booth the business owns.

I have seen some specialized shops sell for more than the above number because they have a truck spray booth or another business attached to the main business. Examples of attached business might be an auto repair shop or towing operation. Also the location, size and real estate rental amount will influence the value of any business, to some degree.

2. The second method, I call the GROSS SALES METHOD. This is used when the sales are over $1,000,000 a year but the profit is unknown or financials are not available or reliable. Because of experience, a Body shop buyer can make reasonable estimates of future profits, if they have some basic information. The basic information includes rent, source of business (DRP, STREET, or a CAR RENTAL AGENCY), and the desirability of the location.

When this method is used, the value appears to be about 3 months sales or 25% of the last 12 months sales. This method is not very reliable on businesses with sales of less than $1,000,000, because the question of being profitable is very questionable. Why is this breaking point $1,000,000 in annual sales? Multi-store buyers will have well paid managers, so many figure their breakeven point is around a million.

Less than $1,000,000 in sales is not even worth their time. Of course we know that there are exceptions to the rules. Some of the exceptions are A. when a new location will be a satellite store to a bigger location. B. The buyer must have a location in a specific area to please a DRP. C. To get rid of a competitor.

3. The third and most used method of evaluating any business, including body shops, is the NET PROFIT METHOD. This method is based on the idea that a business is worth what it generates, in profit and benefits, for an owner. Body shops, like so many other small businesses, often do not show a profit, at the end of the year. Strange, how so many businesses of different sizes all just happen to end up with little or no profit. What I find really amazing is that the IRS doesn't audit more businesses then they currently do.

As a result of showing poor profits, on the books, it becomes very difficult to use the NET PROFIT METHOD for appraising many small businesses. Luckily for me, I can quite often find hidden profits, of a business, by adding to the books, items we call owner's benefits. These include: Owners salaries, if a corporation. Personal autos and all the related expenses used by the owner and his family that are written off against the business, fife insurance and health insurance for the owners.

Depreciation is also a hidden profit that is usually added back in to the taxable profit to help build up the total owners benefits. And lastly, personal utilities, phones, trips, etc. that are deducted on the tax return but are not really costs to run the business.

After saying all this, what is the value of a business based on the Net Profit Method? Automotive businesses, especially auto body shops appear to sell for between 1.5 to 2 years adjusted profit (book profit plus owners benefits added back in). Larger body shops doing over $2,000,000 in annual sales may sell for much more, because the owner is making much more money, than just his salary and a buyer will consider part of the profit a return on his financial investment.

Very large body shops that are being bought by public corporations are evaluated primarily on their return on investment (Percentage profit that is being made on the cash purchase price of the business.) These big buyers can afford to pay between 5 times and 10 times annual net profit, after deducting all officers' salaries and perks.

Often these, public corporations, high purchase prices include two important restrictions, which is really why they are buying the business in the first place. First: The business is bought for little or no real money. They use restricted corporate stock that is not negotiable for two years. And second: The management is required to stay and run the company for some period of years.

The bottom-line, as I see it, is that you sold your soul, not your business. One last comment on selling to large corporations; heaven help the seller who sells his business for corporate stock or the buyers bonds and the buying company goes broke or the stock market crashes. I had a close friend sell his company for mostly cash and some seller carry back financing in Dec 1997. By Feb 1998 the buying company was in bankruptcy, making the paper my friend held worthless.

CONCLUSION: Appraising a business, especially body shops, is an art not a science. No two people will appraise the value of a business the same. I am amazed that the same thing one buyer thinks is a great asset is what another buyer thinks is a major negative. Differences of opinion are what make life interesting.

Death And Taxes

Have you ever owned a stock, or piece of real estate that you wanted to sell? You felt the time was right to take your profit and run. Did you then not follow through with the sale because "the taxes would kill you?" This is what I call "making a decision based on taxes." It is not "Good Horse Sense." What is horse sense? This is where the horse knows that a certain spot is dangerous and it will not step there. The rider, not seeing the danger, sometimes pushes the horse to move forward, but the horse refuses. People quite often will not trust their "sense." Women are known for their "instincts" about people. Men are not always as "sensitive" of their instincts as women are. Lets get back to business instincts.

In the stock market the smart money always says, "Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs lose money." What does this mean? It means, "Never be afraid to take a profit." If it is time to sell, sell! Take your profit and wait until the time is right to get back in. Taxes sometimes make this very difficult. If you sell, the taxes may eat up 30-50% of the profit.

Then again, if you do not sell, when you think the timing is right, you may lose 100% of the profit and some of the principal. It is always smarter to make your business decision first. It is also very important to not consider the tax consequences while making this sound business decision. After you have decided what you want to do based on sound business strategies, then you see your tax accountant and figure out how to do the deal, so as to pay the lowest possible taxes. Do not do it the other way around. Which means, selling when you have a tax loss or a real loss because there would be no taxes to pay.

Many an investor, because of the fear of taxes, held an investment all the way up and then all the way down. The economy runs in 7 to 10 year cycles of boom and bust. Sell in the booms and buy in the busts. If you do not sell at the top, there is no money to buy at the bottom. If your accountant is worth his fee, he will figure out how to shelter the sale. Do call him before making the sale, so he can tell you how to structure the deal. If he can't help you, get a new accountant. An accountant's job is not to do your tax return. It is to advise you how to pay the least taxes using all of the legal tax avoidance techniques, allowed by the IRS.

I have a friend who owned millions of shares of Microsoft. He was worth millions of dollars. Microsoft was the only thing he owned. He was an employee of the company and received stock options. He came to me worried about the company and asked me what to do. I suggested that he sell some of the stock and buy real estate. He was afraid to change horses and paying income taxes worried him. He decided to stick with Microsoft. Two months later Microsoft lost a court case and the stock price crashed. He now tells me "After it goes back up I might diversify." How much do you want to bet on him doing anything? "After the horse is out of the barn, it is too late to close the gate."

I met a man who owned an apartment building in the worst part of San Bernardino. In 1991 he was offered $600,000 for his building, but he refused it because of his concerns for capital gains taxes that he would have to pay. Over the next 8 years, the San Bernardino economy went down hill along with the real estate prices. His building became so vandalized that it was eventually boarded up. He sold the building to one person who thought he could repair the building. He couldn't and our man foreclosed and took the building back. Again he sold the building, for $280,000 this time.

This second buyer also couldn't make it work and today the second buyer stopped making the payments. He is also going to give the building back. Our man has had lower cash offers but he keeps trying to get as close as he can to that old $600,000 price. Therefore he keeps selling and financing that property so as to get a better price. He hasn't learned that sometimes it is better to take the money and run.

Never bet the farm on a sure thing. The only sure thing is death and taxes. Also remember that the bank is not going to be nice if you get in trouble. Always have enough cash reserves, and keep your expenses down so you can always have money for food, insurance, gas, etc, and the low house payment. Accountants may give good tax advice but it may not be good business advice. So, NEVER MAKE A BUSINESS DECISION BASED ON TAXES.

Best long-term investment in today's market?

The stock market is very unstable. At this time it is going up and down while interest rates are so low that you want to be a borrower and not a lender. Would you like some suggestions on how can you get the most out of low interest rates while being assured your principal will not disappear while you are trying to make some money? Of course, there is always the danger of borrowing the money and then spending it just because it is there.

So, would you also like to know what is the best way to borrow money at today's low rates without spending it? Ok, here goes, buy real estate. Not any real estate but real estate that will hold its value, even if single family houses go down. It is apartment buildings. Because apartment rents are still going up, the value of apartment buildings have the best chance of appreciating while everything else goes down.

Low interest rates mean that you can have a positive cash flow at real estate purchase prices you would have lost your shirt on, even two years ago. Rates are currently 4.5% to 6.5% interest rates when we used to pay 9% for apartment loans just a few years ago. Apartments have become a better investment for two main reasons. First, carrying costs (interest costs) have been going down. Second, income has been going up, substantially. Can things be better than this? YES IT CAN.

I have developed two programs. One is to take people with a small net worth and build an estate or self directed IRA (tax free retirement plan) that is worth up to $800,000 in 15 years and that generates an income of $60,000 per year with both still going up after that.

For those that can put together $100,000 to start I have developed a second program where the numbers come in at $1,300,000 net worth, with a $100,000 annual net profit and in only 10 years. Unbelievable? Yes, and with low risk as well! This comes out to be a 25% annual return with no roller coaster stock market ride. I figured out how to do it and it really works. I have done it before and I know many now retired senior citizens that have done it in the past.

The problem today with most 50+-year-old baby boomers is that they never got started on building a retirement fund. So now, instead of having the normal 30 years to build a retirement fund, they need to be there in 10-15 years. It might take one year of financial hell to come up with some cash. (That means no money for anything except accumulating cash) But after that, it can be a sweet painless ride to wealth. The best part is the possibility of failure is less than 10%, if my steps are followed

First: The money is not touched for 10 years. That is why a trust fund, IRA or a self directed retirement plan is a great place to put this.

Second: I have taken my 30 years of real estate experience to develop exactly which properties will give the biggest appreciation and cash flow and also be the best risks. Interestingly, almost everyone I talk to picks the wrong locations to buy until they hear the whole list of criteria.

Now that I have told you the lazy man's way to riches, let me tell you the downside. You have to have the correct timing on your purchase. In Dec 2001, everything was in place to do these two programs, in Los Angeles County. Unfortunately, by July 2002, the numbers didn't work any more. They did still work in Florida, for example, but not in Los Angeles. What happens is that prices go up after the rates go down. The seller sees how good a deal the buyer can get and raises the asking prices. So! Your timing to start these programs is very important. Do not be discouraged, though. If the numbers do not work today, it will work sometime tomorrow. The system is sound, and since we are talking long-term wealth accumulation, a little patience can go a long way.